Kempton draw bias (all weather)

Flat right-handed oval with more galloping bends than Wolverhampton or Lingfield, with a long straight on the 'outer' configuration, laid with Polytrack.

Inner course (shorter straight): 5fl & 1m 2fl
Outer course (long straight): 6fl, 7fl, 1m, 1m4fl & 2m

Although it is essentially the same surface, due to the more galloping nature of the outer track it pays to assume that form from Lingfield and Wolverhampton, may not necessarily translate well - as these are tracks where a burst of speed often pays dividends. Kempton is regarded as a fair track with a good surface - but if you look carefully through the notes you will notice some subtle angles do exist.

Jockeys naturally adapt to draw bias over time, so we have deliberately focussed on the last 2 years' results - to verify existing opinions and to make the data as current as possible, cross checking over longer periods.

Percentages are wins to runs, to 14/01/2010:

5fl 0yds - stalls position HIGH

As you would expect (given the layout), stalls 1-3 produce the fewest winners. Stalls 10+ (high rails draw) do by far the best, especially in handicaps.

Those drawn wide are disadvantaged, although there is an anomaly regarding stall 4, which is above average (over all periods tested), particularly in fields up to 10 runners. Statistically, stall 2 is the hardest to win from.
 
Best stalls: 12 (18.8%), 10 (15.6%), 11 (15.4%), 4 (14.3%), 9 (14.0%)
Worst stalls: 2 (6.6%)
Neutral stalls: 7 (10.3%), 3 (9.8%), 6 (9.6%), 5 (8.8%), 1 (8.6%) , 8 (8.5%)

Std-slow: stalls 11, 12, 9 & 4 show up well above average. The remainder broadly as above.
Std-fast: insufficient data
Slow: no data

6fl 0yds - stalls position HIGH

Similar results obtained over both 2 and 5 years.

Stalls 12 & 8 have a significant advantage, with their neighbours in 11 & 7 also above average. Everything else is deemed neutral.

Best stalls: 8 (17.0%), 12 (16.7%), 7 (12.7%), 11 (11.2%)
Worst stalls: none
Neutral stalls: 9 (10.5%), 5 (9.5%), 4 (9.5%), 3 (9.2%), 6 (9.0%), 10 (8.6%), 1 (8.4%), 2 (8.0%)

Std-slow: nothing has won in the last 5 years from stall 12, so it appears something profound happens to the ground on the inside rail draw. However stalls 10 & 11 have done extremely well from around the same number of races. The rest are neutral except stalls 1, 3 & 9 which should be avoided.
Std-fast: stalls 11 & 12 show up well above average, the rest look broadly neutral albeit on limited data
Slow: no data

7fl 0yds - stall position HIGH

It would be unwise to get too carried away with the bias over 7fl+, and although those drawn centrally who break well do best - to the general disadvantage of those drawn high, who run the risk of being squeezed and shuffled back. Overall 7fl is the fairest trip. Little has changed over 5 years, so to smooth the curves we’ve used 5 year results:

Best stalls: 10 (14.3%, 9 (13.3%), 6 (13.3%), 8 (11.0%), 4 (11.0%)
Worst stalls: 3 (7.9%), 11 (5.6%), 14 (3.4%)
Neutral stalls: 5 (10.1%), 13 (10.0%), 1 (9.7%), 7 (9.6%), 2 (9.6%), 12 (8.5%)

Std-slow: avoid stalls 12, 13 & 14. Stalls 7, 8 & 11 have done best.
Std-fast: insufficient data
Slow: no data

8fl 0yds - stalls position HIGH

We see a similar general position to 7fl, where barring stall 13 those drawn high can get shuffled back to the benefit of those cutting across. These biases throw up very similar results over 2 or 5 years.

The stalls most worth investigating are 1-4, especially in handicaps, where the market may be susceptible to overpricing on decent animals that tend to break and settle well without much cover.

Best stalls: 5-8 (average 13.66%), 13 (15.2%)
Worst stalls: 14 (4.3.%), 11 (6.3%), 12 (7.5%)
Neutral stalls: 1-4, 9 & 10 (average 9.6%)

Std-slow: insufficient data
Std-fast: insufficient data
Slow: no data